LINCOLN CLUB NEWS

After strong primary showings, 3 Republicans now face tough fights
Despite the candidates' primary showings, however, politics watchers give long odds to Downey Councilman Mario A. Guerra, Los Angeles gang prosecutor Elan S. Carr, and businessman David Hadley of Manhattan Beach.

Candidate Endorsements
Los Angeles County Lincoln Clubs is endorsing the following outstanding Republican candidates

Lincoln Clubs Headquarters Moved
New Location: 43 E. Huntington Dr., Suite C, Arcadia 91006.

Speaker Spotlight - Dr. Thomas LaGrelius
Speaks to Lincoln Clubs on the impact of Obamacare

The Battle We Must Fight
California is a solid red political state - if you leave out the Bay Area and Los Angeles County.

American Manufacturing Has Declined More Than Most Experts Have Thought
A new report presents a strong case that manufacturing has declined more during the last decade than it did during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Duke Packs Them In at Long Beach Lincoln Club
Local hero Governor George Deukmejian discuss his career and what's in store for us in the future

Revived Foothills Chapter Breaks Record
The Los Angeles County Lincoln Clubs has had hundreds of outstanding chapter meetings over our thirty years of independent existence.

Lincoln Club

WHATS HAPPENING
IN YOUR AREA

After strong primary showings, 3 Republicans now face tough fights

For Republicans used to watching their party's long slide in California, a recent luncheon at a Torrance hotel offered up
a serving of hope.

The three featured speakers were Republicans who had done the unexpected: finish first in primaries in deep-blue Los Angeles County. Two of the June 3 open primary victories came in Democratic districts and the other in a head-to-head contest with a Democratic incumbent in a swing district.

"These are exciting times for us," Bob Holmes, chairman of the South Bay Chapter of Lincoln Clubs, said at the event.

Despite the candidates' primary showings, however, politics watchers give long odds to Downey Councilman Mario A. Guerra, Los Angeles gang prosecutor Elan S. Carr, and businessman David Hadley of Manhattan Beach.

Elan Carr
Gang prosecutor Elan Carr is trying to succeed Rep. Henry A. Waxman in Congress. (Genaro Molina, Los Angeles Times)

They cite district demographics, and a low-turnout primary, which has historically benefited Republicans, among other factors.

Guerra is running for state Senate in a Democrat-heavy area; Carr is trying to succeed U.S. Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Beverly Hills) in a liberal-leaning Westside congressional district; and Hadley is likely to encounter a more energized foe, with more money supporting him, than during the primary.

Instead, as the Republicans strive to break the Democrats' supermajorities in the Legislature and try to strengthen their dominance in the House, they appear to have set their priorities elsewhere for the Nov. 4 general election.

Those races include four congressional districts held by Democrats, as well as Assembly seats held by Democrats in Palmdale and Fullerton, and an open state Senate seat in Orange County.

But the GOP also must defend seats that Democrats believe they can take — two Central Valley congressional districts and two state Senate seats, also in the Central Valley. In the Assembly, GOP-leaning open seats in the Inland Empire and Ventura County have emerged so far as the main battlegrounds.

The expected focus on those highly competitive races means the three hopefuls who spoke at the Lincoln Club luncheon will probably have to get in line for party help in raising money and recruiting volunteers.

Still, Carr, Guerra and Hadley are all "the kind of Republican you can rebuild the party around," said Jim Brulte, chairman of the state Republican Party. "These candidates all reflect the communities in which they are running, and that's the most important thing."

These candidates all reflect the communities in which they are running, and that's the most important thing. - Jim Brulte, state Republican Party chairman

Carr, Guerra and Hadley espouse fiscal conservatism and a pro-business stance while offering moderate to liberal views on environmental and social issues. All would be newcomers to state or federal office, which supporters say could appeal to voters weary of the partisanship in Sacramento and Washington.

Guerra, 55, came to this country with his Cuban family as a child and has been active with Grow Elect, a GOP effort to recruit and elect more Latino candidates to a party that has often been viewed as unfriendly to minorities.

Guerra won local, albeit nonpartisan, office in the heavily Latino (and Democratic) suburbs of Los Angeles County. He embodies the state party's goal of building on its success in electing members to city councils, school boards and the like.

Guerra is seeking to replace state Sen. Ronald S. Calderon (D-Montebello), who has pleaded not guilty to federal corruption charges and has been suspended from the Senate while his criminal case is pending. Guerra will face former Assemblyman Tony Mendoza this fall, having outpolled the Democrat 45.5% to 31.8% in the primary. When the votes of the other three of Mendoza's party are added, however, Democrats took 55.5%.

"I know I was considered an uphill candidate," Guerra told the luncheon group, adding that he has found many of the Democrats in his district to be "a lot more conservative" than conventional wisdom suggests.

Carr also finds himself in a Democratic district, running for the seat Waxman is retiring from after 40 years in Congress.

David Hadley

Republican David Hadley is challenging incumbent Assmblyman Al Muratsuchi in the fall in the South Bay. (Hadley campaign)

Ordinarily, Carr, 47, might have his best shot in the southern, more politically moderate half of the largely affluent district, which stretches from Malibu and L.A.'s Westside through the Palos Verdes Peninsula.

But his fall opponent is state Sen. Ted Lieu (D-Torrance), whose political base is in the south. Lieu, an Air Force veteran reservist and former member of the Torrance City Council, is considered more moderate than Waxman and also has ties in the Westside, where Carr lives.

Carr "is a great candidate, but he's in the wrong district," said Allan Hoffenblum, a former Republican strategist who publishes the nonpartisan California Target Book on state elections. "He will put on a respectable campaign" but won't appeal to the liberal Westside voters who are a force in district politics.

Demographics are less problematic for Republicans in the South Bay Assembly district where Hadley, 49, is running.

Democrats hold a seven-point registration edge, but the area has elected members of both parties over the years and prefers moderates over ideologues. Incumbent Al Muratsuchi (D-Torrance), a former state prosecutor and school board member, won the seat two years ago by defeating conservative Republican Craig Huey, 55% to 45%.

Hadley, who spent years volunteering in his community and raising money for Republican candidates, is a better fit for the district than Huey, Hoffenblum said, but he still must overcome a well-known incumbent who will have whatever help he might need from his robust state party.

Although Hadley edged Muratsuchi 50.5%-49.5% in June, a Muratsuchi strategist said that would change once the assemblyman begins campaigning in earnest, and an expected improved turnout will probably favor Democrats.

"There is nowhere for Hadley to go for votes in the fall," said the strategist, Mike Shimpock.

 - By Jean Merl, Los Angeles Times

Candidate Endorsements

June 2014 Primary Election Endorsements

The Board of Governors of the Los Angeles County Lincoln Clubs recommend your consideration and vote for the candidates listed below.



Neel Kashkari - Governor

Ron Nehring - Lt. Governor

Greg Conlon - Treasurer

Ashley Swearengin - Controller

Dan Schnur and Pete Peterson (dual endorsement) - Secretary of State

Phil Wyman - Attorney General

Sen. Ted Gaines - Insurance Commissioner

Lydia Gutierrez - Supt. of Public Instruction

Sen. George Runner - State Board of Equalization, 1st District

Jeff Gorell - US Congress, 26th District

Jack Orswell - US Congress, 27th District

Mark Reed - US Congress, 30th District

Arturo Alas - US Congress, 32nd District

Elan Carr - US Congress, 33rd District

Congressman Ed Royce - US Congress, 39th District

Sen. Mimi Walters - US Congress, 45th District

Andy Whallon - US Congress, 47th District

William Rodriguez Morrison - State Senate, 24th District

Seth Stodder - State Senate, 26th District

Downey Councilman and former Mayor Mario Guerra - State Senate, 32nd District

Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen - State Senate, 34th District

Assemblyman Scott Wilk - State Assembly, 38th District

Marc Steinorth - State Assembly, 40th District

Susan Shelley - State Assembly, 45th District

Joe Gardner - State Assembly, 48th District

Rita Topalian - State Assembly, 57th District

Young Kim - State Assembly, 65th District

David Hadley - State Assembly, 66th District

John Goya - State Assembly, 70th District

Damon Dunn - Long Beach Mayor

Charlie Parkin - Long Beach City Attorney

Juventino “J” Gomez - Los Angeles County Supervisor, 1st District

State Board of Equalization Vice Chairman Michelle Steel - Orange County Supervisor, 2nd District

Assemblyman Curt Hagman - San Bernardino County Supervisor, 4th District

Carol Rose - Judge of the Superior Court, Office 48

Shannon Knight - Judge of the Superior Court, Office 54

Dayan Mathai - Judge of the Superior Court, Office 61

Stacy Weise - Judge of the Superior Court, Office 113

Carol Najera - Judge of the Superior Court, Office 117

Donna Armstrong - Judge of the Superior Court, Office 138

Andrew Cooper - Judge of the Superior Court, Office 157

Prop. 41 - Yes

Prop. 42 - Yes
 

State Senator Mimi Walters for the congressional seat of retiring Orange County Congressman John Campbell. Mimi is a former city leader and Assemblywoman who is well respected in Sacramento and Washington DC. She will be the only woman among California's Republican congressional delegation, and we can count on her to be a tough vote for free enterprise and limited government.
 
Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen for the open 34th State Senate District in central and western Orange County. A portion of the Los Angeles County City of Long Beach is in the 34th District. Janet is running to replace termed out Democrat Senator Lou Correa, the only Democrat in Orange County's Senate delegation.
 
Long time Congressman Ed Royce staffer Young Kim for the 65th Assembly District in northeast Orange County. This Republican leaning seat was lost to freshman Democrat Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva in an upset in 2012. Young is a top GOP target and excellent fundraiser. We are counting on her to retake it for the Republicans.
 
State Board of Equalization Vice Chairman Michelle Steel for Orange County Supervisor in the Second District. This is an open seat that has been represented by Michelle on the Board of Equalization since 2006. She is a long time LACLC Member and is known as the taxpayers champion on the Board of Equalization.
 
Assemblyman Curt Hagman for San Bernardino County Supervisor in the Fourth District. Curt is a long time businessman, and a former Councilman and Mayor of Chino Hills. He has been in the leadership among Assembly Republicans the entire time he has been in Sacramento. Curt is known as a budget hawk who always looks for ways to save taxpayers money and reduce regulations.
 
Downey Councilman and former Mayor Mario Guerra in the 32nd State Senate District in southeast LA County and the City of Buena Park in Orange County. Mario has lived in the district since the age of six, when he immigrated from Cuba. Mario co-founded Scanlon-Guerra-Burke Insurance Brokers, which was recently named one of the ten largest brokerage firms in Southern California by the Los Angeles Business Journal and one of the Top 100 Brokers in the United States. Mario is President of the Independent Cities Association, representing 53 cities with over seven million residents.
 
Prominent attorney Rita Topalian for the 57th Assembly District. Rita is a long time civic leader who ran well above registration the last time she ran for Assembly.
 
Congressman Ed Royce in the San Gabriel Valley and northern Orange County. Ed is a long time friend of the Lincoln Clubs and Chairman of the powerful House Foreign Affairs Committee. He is an important part of the Republican congressional leadership, and we are proud of his outstanding service to taxpayers and to America in general.
 
Assemblyman Scott Wilk in the Santa Clarita Valley area. Scott has been a good vote for business, and a strong advocate of less government and more freedom.
 
Juventino “J” Gomez for Los Angeles County Supervisor in the First District. J is a Veteran and former Senior Deputy to Lincoln Clubs friend Supervisor Mike Antonovich. He is a Councilman in the City of El Monte, one of the largest cities in the District. He is running for the seat being vacated by Supervisor Gloria Molina against former Congresswoman and Obama Cabinet Member Hilda Solis.
 
David Hadley in the 66th Assembly District in the South Bay area of Los Angeles County. David is an energetic young businessman who found time to Chair the local Republican Party and raise them $100,000. He also raised over $300,000 for his own Assembly campaign and is one of the bright young stars of the 2014 campaign season.
 

Lincoln Clubs Headquarters Moved

The Los Angeles County Lincoln Clubs have moved their headquarters location from the Covina Republican Headquarters, 200 E. Rowland Ave, Covina 91723 to the Arcadia Republican Headquarters, 43 E. Huntington Dr., Suite C, Arcadia 91006.

The Lincoln Clubs believe that Republican headquarters should serve all Republican candidates, and be kept free of personality disputes that harm some Republican candidates and benefit others. Unfortunately, we can no longer endorse or recommend the Covina Republican Headquarters.

Sadly, the Covina headquarters put personalities above principles and party in the recent election for West Covina City Council. They refused to support former San Gabriel Valley Lincoln Club Chairman Mike Spence or advertise his candidacy through their headquarters. The Lincoln Clubs strongly supported now Councilman Spence for his twenty five year record of leadership on behalf of Republican principles and candidates, including many years of volunteer service as Chairman of the Assembly District Republican Central Committee in which the Covina headquarters was located.

Mr. Spence also served six years on the Board of Directors of the California Republican Party, eight years as Chairman of its Initiatives Committee and six years as President of the California Republican Assembly (CRA). He has been Chief of Staff to two Republican State Legislators.

Mike Spence was born in West Covina and has resided there all of his 47 years. He attended West Covina public schools, and has been an elected Member of the West Covina School Board for the past 22 consecutive years, earning the endorsement of the voters of West Covina six times in a row before receiving their endorsement for the seventh time last month in the City Council race.

Councilman Spence won his election last month by six votes. He is now the only Republican left among the five members of the West Covina City Council, a historic low in that city.

The Lincoln Clubs has requested and received assurances from the Arcadia Republican Headquarters that it will treat all Republican candidates fairly and with respect. We look forward to working with them in years to come, and thank them for their service and support of the mission of the Lincoln Clubs.

 

Speaker Spotlight - Dr. Thomas LaGrelius

One of the biggest changes in American life over the last one hundred years is due to start impacting your life in a matter of months. “Obamacare” will radically change the practice of medicine and you will be personally affected by it.

What kind of impact will it have on your life? Find out from a very prominent Doctor at the next meeting of the Lincoln Clubs!

Dr. Thomas LaGrelius is a diplomate of the American  Board  of  Family  Practice  and  Geriatric  Medicine, and  a  fellow  of  the  American  Academy  of  Family Physicians.

He has practiced medicine in Los Angeles County for over 35 years.  Dr. LaGrelius has a solo practice in Torrance. He operates a  primary  care  concierge practice,  which  is  limited  to  600  patients  with  an  annual  fee.  This  design  allows  him  to  spend  much  more  time  with  patients, since typical  primary care practices have  between 2,000 – 3,000 patients.  In addition to being available 24/7,  he  makes  house  calls  and  continues  to  follow  his patients  in  the  hospital, a  rarity  these  days.

Dr. LaGrelius serves on numerous medical boards and has a passion for flying airplanes.  He is married to Patti and has three children and two granddaughters.

The Battle We Must Fight

California is a solid red political state - if you leave out the Bay Area and Los Angeles County.

These two "black holes" have dragged us as a state into the liberal Democrat quagmire regularly during the 21st century. Election returns make it clear that Republicans must address one of these black holes to win statewide in California on more than an occasional basis. We don't have to win the targeted black hole, but we must be able to pull 40% of the vote.

Republican oriented entities do not have nearly the resources of our opposition, and trying to deal with both of our black holes at once is far beyond our capabilities. Your continued presence in California is the strongest indicator that you haven't yet given up on the Golden State. So if you're staying here, and are a Republican who understands the importance of the political battle we are involved in for the future of our businesses, our children and grandchildren and our very country, how do you select which black hole to tackle?

The chart below shows the number of registered Republicans in the expanded eleven county Bay Area (Alameda,Contra Costa, Solano,Napa, Sonoma, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz and Monterey) as compared to Los Angeles County. Please note that while Republican registration has declined in both areas, the decline has been faster in the Bay Area.

In this century, Republican registration has declined by 143,500 in Los Angeles County but by 216,665 in the Bay Area. That amounts to 73,165 more Republicans lost in the Bay Area on a smaller population of under seven and a half million compared to Los Angeles County's ten million people.

The current critical mass of Republicans is much larger in Los Angeles County at just over one million registered GOP voters today versus three quarters of a million for the entire eleven county Bay Area.

The Bay Area region has eleven Republican county central committees with minimal functionality and inter county coordination. Los Angeles County has one functional county central committee headed by a competent Chairman.

The Bay Area has the Northern California Lincoln Club, which is not involved in the party mechanics of voter registration and GOTV efforts. Los Angeles County has the Los Angeles County Lincoln Clubs (LACLC), a network of business and professional leaders who regularly meet in eight component chapters covering all areas of the county. LACLC has worked closely with the county party in the recent past and still has the ability to work directly with them as desired.

LACLC has also taken the leadership role in this century in Republican voter registration. Working with the state and county parties, the Lincoln Clubs have put together their own voter registration network that registered over a quarter million new Republicans and is directly responsible for the continued existence of one million GOP voters in Los Angeles County.

The overwhelming electoral and demographic verdict is that the Republican Party must compete in one of its two political black holes in California to make a comeback. Failure is not an option for those of us who continue to have our families and businesses located here.

Which one do you pick?

COMING TO
LINCOLN CLUBS

DOWNTOWN

October 3rd - President, Pacific Research Institute, Sally Pipes

Lincoln Club

FOOTHILLS

September 12th - Dr. Charles Kesler, The Claremont Institute

 

Lincoln Club

LONG BEACH

August 28th - Dark

September 25th - Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff

October 23rd - Republican Nominee for Secretary of State

Lincoln Club

SAN GABRIEL VALLEY

To be Rescheduled - Ambassador Bruce Linghu of the Taipei Economic and Culture Office

Lincoln Club

SANTA CLARITA VALLEY

August 22nd - Los Angeles County Supervisor Mike Antonovich

September 26th - State Senator Bob Huff

October 24th - Republican Nominee Secretary of State Pete Peterson

November 28th - Dark

December 26th - Dark

Lincoln Club

SOUTH BAY

September 19th - Political Pundit Dr. Michael Warder‏

Lincoln Club

SOUTHEAST LOS ANGELES COUNTY

September 5th - Dr. Steven Frates, Using Fiscal Data to Win Elections

Lincoln Club